Category Archives: Gubernatorial
Were the gubernatorial races a response to Trumpism?
Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017
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County and Independent City Results
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Elections in Virginia |
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The Virginia gubernatorial election of 2017 was held on November 7, 2017. The incumbent governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, was not eligible to run for re-election due to term limits established by the Virginia Constitution. Virginia is the only state that prohibits its governor from serving consecutive terms.
Primary elections took place on June 13, 2017. Virginia utilizes an open primary, in which registered voters are allowed to vote in either party’s primary election.[1] The Democratic Party nominated Ralph Northam and the Republican Party nominated Ed Gillespie. The Libertarian Party nominated Cliff Hyra by convention on May 6, 2017.[2]
In the general election on November 7, 2017, Democratic nominee Ralph Northam defeated Republican nominee Ed Gillespie winning by the largest margin for the Democrat since 1985. Northam will become the 73rd governor of Virginia, and take office on January 13, 2018.[3]
Contents
[hide]
Democratic primary[edit]
Declared[edit]
Declined[edit]
- Gerry Connolly, U.S. Representative[7][8]
- Mark Herring, Attorney General of Virginia (running for re-election)[9]
- Brian Moran, Virginia Secretary of Public Safety, former State Delegate and candidate for governor in 2009[10]
Endorsements[edit]
[hide]Tom Perriello |
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Polling[edit]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ralph Northam |
Tom Perriello |
Other | Undecided |
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CSP Polling | June 8–11, 2017 | 1642 | ± 2.1% | 41% | 46% | — | 13% |
Change Research | June 8–10, 2017 | 919 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 54% | — | — |
Hampton University | June 1–6, 2017 | 750 | ± 4.2% | 21% | 29% | — | 50% |
HaystaqDNA (Internal Perriello Poll) | June 1–6, 2017 | 455 | — | 36% | 37% | — | 29% |
Garin-Hart-Yang (Internal Northam Poll) | May 15–17, 2017 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | — | 17% |
Washington Post-Schar School | May 9–14, 2017 | 351 | ± 6.0% | 38% | 40% | — | 18% |
Virginia Education Association/Public Policy Polling | May 9–10, 2017 | 745 | ± 3.6% | 45% | 35% | — | 21% |
Virginia Education Association/Public Policy Polling | April 13–14, 2017 | 586 | ± 4.1% | 42% | 28% | — | 30% |
Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 483 | ± 4.5% | 20% | 25% | 1% | 51% |
Christopher Newport University | March 16–26, 2017 | 391 | ± 5.4% | 26% | 26% | 3% | 45% |
Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 462 | ± 4.6% | 19% | 19% | 3% | 61% |
Christopher Newport University | January 15–28, 2017 | 464 | ± 4.8% | 15% | 26% | 1% | 58% |
[hide]Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||
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Results[edit]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ralph Northam | 303,846 | 55.92% | |
Democratic | Tom Perriello | 239,505 | 44.08% | |
Total votes | 543,351 | 100.0% |
Republican primary[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[33][5]
- Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013[34]
- Frank Wagner, State Senator[35]
Failed to qualify[edit]
- Emmanuel Peter, bishop[36]
Withdrawn[edit]
- Denver Riggleman, businessman[37][38]
- Rob Wittman, U.S. Representative[39][40]
Declined[edit]
- Bill Bolling, former Lieutenant Governor of Virginia[41]
- Eric Cantor, former Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives[42][43][44]
- Ken Cuccinelli, former Attorney General of Virginia and nominee for governor in 2013[45]
- Randy Forbes, former U.S. Representative[46][47][48]
- Thomas Garrett, Jr., U.S. Representative[49]
- Shak Hill, financial consultant and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[45]
- Jeff McWaters, former State Senator[50][51][52]
- Mark Obenshain, State Senator and nominee for attorney general in 2013[53]
- Pete Snyder, technology executive and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013[50][54][55]
Endorsements[edit]
[show]Corey Stewart |
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[show]Frank Wagner |
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Polling[edit]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Gillespie |
Corey Stewart |
Frank Wagner |
Rob Wittman |
Other | Undecided |
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Change Research | June 8–10, 2017 | 919 | ± 3.1% | 41% | 42% | 16% | — | — | — |
Washington Post-Schar School | May 9–14, 2017 | 264 | ± 7.0% | 38% | 18% | 15% | — | — | 24% |
Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 435 | ± 4.7% | 28% | 12% | 7% | — | 2% | 51% |
Christopher Newport University | March 16–26, 2017 | 349 | ± 5.7% | 38% | 11% | 10% | — | 3% | 38% |
Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 24% | 7% | 2% | — | 6% | 59% |
Christopher Newport University | January 15–28, 2017 | 418 | ± 5.0% | 33% | 7% | 9% | — | 3% | 48% |
Quinnipiac University | December 6–11, 2016 | 451 | ± 4.6% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 10% | — | 57% |
Public Opinion Strategies | September 18–21, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 5% | 4% | 12% | — | 40% |
Public Policy Polling | June 13–15, 2016 | 1,032 | ± 3.1% | 29% | 13% | — | 16% | — | 41% |
[show]Hypothetical polling |
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Results[edit]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Ed Gillespie | 160,100 | 43.7% | |
Republican | Corey Stewart | 155,780 | 42.5% | |
Republican | Frank Wagner | 50,394 | 13.8% | |
Total votes | 366,274 | 100.0% |
Libertarian convention[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Nominee[edit]
- Cliff Hyra, attorney[64]
Withdrew[edit]
- Jason Carrier
General election[edit]
The race has been closely watched by national observers. For Republicans, National Review wrote that Gillespie’s campaign was an important example of whether and how mainstream Republican politics can produce victories in a purple state in the “era of Trumpism“, and said that the outcome would affect Republican strategies in future races.[65] Democrats have stated a view that the election is a test of whether the party can find its way after losing the 2016 presidential election and several subsequent special elections.[66] NBC News reported that Northam was the “hand-picked” choice of outgoing Governor Terry McAuliffe, and that McAuliffe’s legacy and potential 2020 presidential aspirations depended on Northam winning the election.[citation needed]
Debates[edit]
After the primaries, Gillespie challenged Northam to ten debates, but only three were held.[67] The first debate was hosted by the Virginia Bar Association on July 22 in Hot Springs, Virginia.[68] The second was held on September 19, hosted by the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce in Tysons Corner, Virginia, and televised statewide by NBC-affiliated TV stations.[69]The third and final debate was held on October 9 at University of Virginia’s College at Wise in Wise, Virginia.[70]
Endorsements[edit]
[hide]Ed Gillespie |
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[hide]Cliff Hyra |
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[hide]Ralph Northam |
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[hide]Declined to endorse |
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Polling[edit]
Polls for the general election have varied significantly, ranging from a 17-point lead for Ralph Northam on one end to an 8-point lead for Ed Gillespie on the other end, with most polls showing the race within or close to the margin of error. Politicoreported that the wide variation in polling numbers was likely due to differences in methodology among the polls.[203] Polls tightened significantly in the last two weeks of the campaign, with several showing the race tied or within the margin of error.[204][205][206]
Polls[edit]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ralph Northam (D) |
Ed Gillespie (R) |
Cliff Hyra (L) |
Other | Undecided |
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Google Consumer Surveys | November 3–5, 2017 | 1,021 | ± 3.8% | 51% | 49% | – | – | 0% |
FOX News | November 2–5, 2017 | 1,239 LV | ± 2.5% | 48% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 7% |
1,450 RV | 45% | 41% | 3% | 1% | 9% | |||
The Polling Company (R) | November 2–5, 2017 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 3% | – | 4% |
47% | 46% | – | – | 4% | ||||
Monmouth University | November 2–5, 2017 | 713 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 5% |
IMGE Insights (R) | November 1–5, 2017 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | — | — | — |
Change Research | November 1–5, 2017 | 3,648 | ± 2.8% | 52% | 46% | 2% | – | 0% |
Quinnipiac University | October 30 – November 5, 2017 | 1,056 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 42% | 3% | – | 4% |
Emerson College | November 2–4, 2017 | 810 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 46% | 1% | – | 4% |
Christopher Newport University | October 29 – November 4, 2017 | 839 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 45% | 2% | – | 2% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 31 – November 3, 2017 | 875 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
Gravis Marketing | October 30 – November 3, 2017 | 1,143 | ± 2.9% | 48% | 43% | 3% | – | 6% |
0ptimus (R) | November 1–2, 2017 | 1,600 | ± 2.4% | 37% | 40% | – | – | 23% |
Trafalgar Group (R) | October 31 – November 2, 2017 | 1,200 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 48% | 1% | – | 2% |
The Polling Company (R) | October 30 – November 2, 2017 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% |
43% | 46% | – | – | 7% | ||||
Upshot/Siena College | October 29 – November 2, 2017 | 985 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 2% | – | 14% |
Roanoke College | October 29 – November 2, 2017 | 781 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 3% | – | 3% |
Suffolk University | October 30 – November 1, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2% | – | 6% |
Washington Post/Schar School | October 26–29, 2017 | 921 LV | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | 4% | – | 3% |
1,000 RV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 39% | 5% | – | 5% | ||
Quinnipiac University | October 25–29, 2017 | 916 | ± 4.2% | 53% | 36% | 3% | – | 7% |
The Polling Company (R) | October 24–26, 2017 | 600 LV | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | 3% | – | 7% |
October 23–26, 2017 | 800 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | – | – | 9% | |
Christopher Newport University | October 20–25, 2017 | 812 | ± 3.8% | 50% | 43% | 3% | – | 4% |
Plural Vote | October 15–25, 2017 | 397 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% | – | – |
Hampton University | October 18–22, 2017 | 750 | ± 4.2% | 33% | 41% | – | – | 27% |
FOX News | October 15–17, 2017 | 697 LV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 42% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
815 RV | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 6% | ||
Quinnipiac University | October 12–17, 2017 | 1,088 | ± 3.7% | 53% | 39% | 2% | – | 5% |
Monmouth University | October 12–16, 2017 | 408 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 48% | 3% | – | 3% |
Christopher Newport University | October 9–13, 2017 | 642 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 44% | 3% | – | 5% |
Roanoke College | October 8–13, 2017 | 607 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 2% | – | 4% |
Emerson College | October 5–7, 2017 | 318 | ± 5.5% | 49% | 44% | 2% | – | 5% |
Christopher Newport University | October 2–6, 2017 | 928 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 42% | 3% | – | 6% |
Washington Post/Schar School | September 28 – October 2, 2017 | 720 LV | ± 4.5% | 53% | 40% | 4% | – | 2% |
1,000 RV | ± 3.5% | 48% | 38% | 5% | – | 5% | ||
Victoria Research (D) | September 24–28, 2017 | 631 | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | 3% | – | – |
Monmouth University | September 21–25, 2017 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 2% | <1% | 4% |
Public Policy Polling | September 21–23, 2017 | 849 | ± 3.8% | 43% | 40% | 4% | – | 13% |
Roanoke College | September 16–23, 2017 | 596 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 5% | – | 5% |
Christopher Newport University | September 12–22, 2017 | 776 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 41% | 4% | – | 8% |
FOX News | September 17–18, 2017 | 500 LV | ± 4.5% | 42% | 41% | 2% | 2% | 12% |
507 RV | ± 4.0% | 42% | 38% | 2% | 2% | 13% | ||
Quinnipiac University | September 14–18, 2017 | 850 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 41% | 3% | – | 5% |
IMGE Insights (R) | September 12–18, 2017 | 1,000 | ± 3.8% | 45% | 41% | 4% | – | 10% |
Suffolk University | September 13–17, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 42% | 3% | – | 12% |
Mason-Dixon | September 10–15, 2017 | 625 | ± 4% | 44% | 43% | 2% | – | 11% |
University of Mary Washington | September 5–12, 2017 | 562 LV | ± 5.2% | 44% | 39% | 3% | 1% | 11% |
867 RV | ± 4.1% | 40% | 35% | 5% | – | 16% | ||
Roanoke College | August 12–19, 2017 | 599 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 36% | 4% | – | 17% |
Quinnipiac University | August 3–8, 2017 | 1,082 | ± 3.8% | 44% | 38% | 4% | 1% | 11% |
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 17–25, 2017 | 538 LV | ± 5.1% | 42% | 37% | 6% | – | 13% |
707 RV | ± 4.5% | 39% | 33% | 8% | – | 16% | ||
Monmouth University | July 20–23, 2017 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | 3% | <1% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | June 15–20, 2017 | 1,145 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 39% | – | 2% | 9% |
Harper Polling | June 14–16, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | – | – | 8% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 6–8, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | 9% |
Washington Post/Schar School | May 9–14, 2017 | 1,602 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | – | – | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | April 6–10, 2017 | 1,115 | ± 2.9% | 44% | 33% | – | 1% | 19% |
Christopher Newport University | March 16–26, 2017 | 831 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 40% | – | 2% | 19% |
Gravis Marketing | March 14–19, 2017 | 3,097 | ± 1.6% | 40% | 42% | – | – | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | February 10–15, 2017 | 989 | ± 3.1% | 41% | 35% | – | 3% | 22% |
Mason-Dixon | January 5–10, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | – | – | 15% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) | December 11–13, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 38% | – | – | 17% |
Quinnipiac University | December 6–11, 2016 | 1,098 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 34% | – | 1% | 26% |
University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2016 | 685 LV | ± 4.4% | 36% | 43% | – | 1% | 16% |
852 RV | ± 3.9% | 36% | 41% | – | 1% | 18% | ||
Public Policy Polling | September 9–11, 2016 | 878 | ± 3.3% | 37% | 37% | – | – | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | June 13–15, 2016 | 1,032 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 37% | – | – | 28% |
Gravis Marketing | May 24, 2016 | 1,728 | ± 2.0% | 38% | 40% | – | – | 22% |
University of Mary Washington | November 4–9, 2015 | 656 LV | ± 4.3% | 32% | 44% | – | 1% | 16% |
814 RV | ± 3.9% | 33% | 40% | – | 1% | 18% | ||
Public Policy Polling | July 13–15, 2015 | 1,170 | ± 2.9% | 30% | 40% | – | – | 32% |
[show]
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Fundraising[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 26, 2017 | |
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Candidate | Amount raised |
Ralph Northam | $33,787,580 |
Ed Gillespie | $24,470,373 |
Cliff Hyra | $74,472 |
Source: Virginia Public Access Project[207] |
Virginia election laws allow for unlimited campaign contributions in state and local elections.
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Northam’s top five donors are the Democratic Governors Association‘s super PAC DGA Action; Michael Bloomberg’s Everytown for Gun Safety group; the Virginia League of Conservation Voters; Michael D. Bills; and the Laborers’ International Union of North America.[208]
Gillespie’s top five donors are the Republican Governors Association; A Stronger Virginia; Let’s Grow Virginia; Marlene Ricketts; and Dwight Schar.[209]
Hyra’s top five donors are Michael Chastain; Hyra himself; the Libertarian Party of Virginia; Paradise Indian Restaurant; and nine donors who have given the same amount.[210]
Results[edit]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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Democratic | Ralph Northam | 1,405,097 | 53.87% | +6.12% | |
Republican | Ed Gillespie | 1,172,533 | 44.95% | −0.28% | |
Libertarian | Cliff Hyra | 29,303 | 1.12% | −5.40% | |
Write-ins | 1,392 | 0.05% | |||
Majority | 232,564 | 8.92% | +6.40% | ||
Turnout | 2,608,325 | ||||
Democratic hold | Swing |