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The Republicans held a presidential primary election, officially called the open primary of the right and centre (French: primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre), to select a candidate for the 2017 French presidential election. It took place on 20 November 2016, with a runoff on 27 November since no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1] It was the first time an open primary had been held for The Republicans or its predecessors.
Voting procedures[edit]
Ballot papers used in the first round
Conditions[edit]
Unlike previous Union for a Popular Movement primaries, this was the first primary to be open to the general public.[2] The first round of voting took place on 20 November 2016. A runoff was held on 27 November after no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round.[1]
Candidates[edit]
Candidates had to obtain the support of 20 MPs, 2,500 party members and 250 elected representatives to participate.[3]Seven candidates were accepted by the High Authority:[4]
Validated candidates[edit]
| Name, age | Details and notes | |
|---|---|---|
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Jean-François Copé[1] (52) |
Copé announced his candidacy on 14 February 2016 at 20:00 on France 2 – while Nicolas Sarkozy was speaking on TF1 – a few weeks after the release of his book The French Start. After nearly 18 months of media silence, Copé said he was “ready” to return to center stage. Copé was quoted on France 2 as “being very hypocritical to delay unnecessarily”, even when a judge’s decision on the “sad Bygmalion case” arrived the previous Monday. Copé had been placed under attended witness status and thus escaped indictment. |
.jpg) |
François Fillon[5](62) |
Fillon announced his candidacy in April 2015 by declaring that he is “a candidate to bring a project of rupture and progress around an ambition to make France the first European power in ten years”. He announced in January 2016 that he would leave politics if he fails to win the primary. Fillon has also committed, as has Alain Juppé, to serve only one term if he is elected President in 2017. |
.jpg) |
Alain Juppé[6](71) |
Juppé announced his intention to contest the 2016 Republicans (formerly UMP) internal election, which will decide who will be the candidate of the right-wing for the 2017 presidential election, on 20 August 2014. The most popular politician in France, he is described by The Daily Telegraph as “a consensual conservative seen as less divisive than Nicolas Sarkozy“.[7][8] |
 |
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet[1][2](43) |
Kosciusko-Morizet declared her candidacy on 8 March 2016, on the occasion of the International Women’s Day, stating that “I think we can finally change politics. I am a candidate to give everyone, every French person, control of their life.” |
.jpg) |
Bruno Le Maire[1][2](47) |
Le Maire officially declared his candidacy at a public meeting in Vesoul on 23 February 2016. “My decision is simple, strong, unwavering. Yes, I am a candidate for president,” he said on stage. Le Maire had earlier left little doubt about his participation in the primary. “If I told you that I was not getting ready for the primary, I would be lying. And I do not like to lie,” he had said on RTL 4 in January. In the wake of his candidacy, Bruno Le Maire has also released a book about his vision of France entitled Do Not Resign. He already enjoyed broad support, including that of Michel Barnier and Yves Jégo, even as the UDI had not yet decided on its participation in the primary. |
.jpg) |
Jean-Frédéric Poisson[1](53) |
As head of the Christian Democratic Party, he will be their candidate in the centre-right’s 2016 primary. |
_03_(cropped).jpg) |
Nicolas Sarkozy (61) |
Sarkozy announced his intention to contest the primary on 22 August 2016.[9] |
Withdrawn candidates[edit]
- Xavier Bertrand,[1] President of the Regional Council of Hauts-de-France since 2016, former Mayor of Saint-Quentin from 2010-2016; former Minister of Labour, Employment and Health from 2010–2012; former Secretary-General of the UMP from 2008–2010
- Christian Estrosi,[1] President of the Regional Council of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur since 2015; Mayor of Nice since 2008; former Deputy Minister of Industry from 2009–2010; former Deputy Minister of Overseas France from 2007–2008; former Deputy Minister of Planning of the Territory from 2005–2007
Opinion polls[edit]
First round[edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
 |
|
.jpg) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fillon UMP/LR |
Juppé UMP/LR |
Kosciusko-Morizet UMP/LR |
Le Maire UMP/LR |
Sarkozy UMP/LR |
Others/Undecided | |||
| Le Parisien/i-Télé-CQFD | 5–6 Jun 2014 | 988 | 13% | 19% | – | – | 28% | 40% |
| Ifop | 13–16 Apr 2015 | 704 | 5% | 33% | – | 12% | 42% | 8% |
| Ifop | 4–9 Jun 2015 | 1,879 | 7% | 42% | – | 13% | 33% | 5% |
| Ipsos | 25–31 Aug 2015 | 519 | 11% | 40% | – | 11% | 34% | 4% |
| Ifop | 3–4 Sep 2015 | 1,079 | 9% | 30% | 3% | – | 21% | 37% |
| Ifop | 25 Sep–9 Oct 2015 | 5,220 | 8% | 37% | 2% | 6% | 37% | 10% |
| BVA/Presse Régionale | 6–15 Oct 2015 | 11,244 | 8% | 31% | 2% | 11% | 38% | 10% |
| Ifop | 9 Oct-16 Nov 2015 | 5,274 | 9% | 35% | 2% | 9% | 34% | 11% |
| Opinion Way | 26 Oct–17 Nov 2015 | 400 | 21% | 29% | – | 10% | 11% | 29% |
| Ifop | 16 Dec 2015–7 Jan 2016 | 5,989 | 12% | 38% | 4% | 12% | 29% | 5% |
| Ifop | 11-22 Jan 2016 | 4,974 | 12% | 41% | 2% | 10% | 30% | 5% |
| Ipsos-Sopra Steria | 22-31 Jan 2016 | 1,333 | 9% | 44% | 2% | 11% | 32% | 2% |
| BVA/Orange et iTélé | 11-12 Feb 2016 | 1,053 | 11% | 47% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Ifop | 1-15 Feb 2016 | 4,967 | 11% | 39% | 3% | 11% | 32% | 7% |
| Elabe/BFMTV | 16 Feb-16 Mar 2016 | 5,001 | 11% | 41% | 4% | 13% | 23% | 8% |
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 18 Feb-10 Mar 2016 | 4,036 | 9% | 41% | 3% | 16% | 23% | 8% |
| Ifop | 23 Feb-18 Mar 2016 | 8,090 | 8% | 38% | 3% | 16% | 27% | 8% |
| Ifop | 29 Mar-14 Apr 2016 | 5,775 | 15% | 37% | 3% | 12% | 26% | 7% |
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 | 1,660 | 9% | 41% | 4% | 15% | 24% | 7% |
| Ifop | 28 Apr-20 May 2016 | 8,604 | 12% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 27% | 9% |
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 13% | 39% | 3% | 13% | 27% | 5% |
| Odoxa | 9 Jun 2016 | 1,033 | 9% | 28% | – | 7% | 54% | 2% |
| Ifop | 25 May–17 Jun 2016 | 1,037 | 11% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 28% | 9% |
| Ipsos | 17–26 Jun 2016 | 1,234 | 9% | 38% | 2% | 16% | 30% | 5% |
| Elabe | 17 May–29 Jun 2016 | 624 | 11% | 39% | 2% | 12% | 29% | 7% |
| Harris Interactive | 12-14 Sept 2016 | 563 | 10% | 37% | 3% | 9% | 37% | 4% |
| Ipsos | 9–18 Sept 2016 | 1,216 | 10% | 37% | 4% | 13% | 33% | 3% |
| Ifop | 22 Aug–5 Sept 2016 | 620 | 10% | 35% | 4% | 10% | 33% | 8% |
| BVA | 13–20 Sept 2016 | 774 | 11% | 38% | 4% | 11% | 34% | 2% |
| Ifop | 9–26 Sept 2016 | 527 | 12% | 35% | 4% | 13% | 31% | 5% |
| Kantar Sofres | 21-26 Sept 2016 | 561 | 8% | 39% | 4% | 13% | 33% | 3% |
| Harris Interactive | 3–5 Oct 2016 | 651 | 12% | 39% | 3% | 8% | 35% | 3% |
| Odoxa | 1 Sept–6 Oct 2016 | 680 | 11% | 39% | 4.5% | 12% | 31% | 2.5% |
| Kantar Sofres | 30 Sept–6 Oct 2016 | 586 | 11% | 42% | 4% | 11% | 28% | 4% |
| Odoxa | 10–20 Oct 2016 | 621 | 11% | 43% | 4% | 13% | 26% | 3% |
| Harris Interactive | 7–9 Nov 2016 | 975 | 17% | 39% | 4% | 7% | 31% | 2% |
| Kantar Sofres | 7–10 Nov 2016 | 714 | 18% | 36% | 4% | 9% | 30% | 3% |
| Odoxa | 9–11 Nov 2016 | 554 | 20% | 36% | 5% | 8% | 26% | 5% |
| BVA | 3–13 Nov 2016 | 928 | 18% | 37% | 4% | 9% | 29% | 3% |
| Ipsos Sopra-Steria | 8–13 Nov 2016 | 1,337 | 22% | 36% | 3% | 7% | 29% | 3% |
| Ifop | 31 Oct–14 Nov 2016 | 647 | 20% | 33% | 3% | 8% | 30% | 6% |
| Elabe | 9–15 Nov 2016 | 680 | 21% | 34% | 5% | 7% | 30% | 3% |
| Opinion Way | 13–15 Nov 2016 | 828 | 25% | 33% | 4% | 9% | 25% | 4% |
| Ifop | 10–17 Nov 2016 | 744 | 27% | 31% | 2% | 7% | 30% | 3% |
| Ipsos | 18 Nov 2016 | 807 | 30% | 29% | 3.5% | 5% | 29% | 3.5% |
| First round results | 20 November 2016 | – | 44.1% | 28.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 20.7% | 1.8% |
Second round[edit]
Polls conducted prior to the first round[edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé LR |
Fillon LR |
Undecided | |||
| Odoxa/Le Parisien | 17 Mar-29 Apr 2016 | 1,660 | 72% | 28% | – |
| Opinion Way | 19–23 May 2016 | 808 | 66% | 34% | – |
Polls conducted after the first round[edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juppé LR |
Fillon LR |
Undecided | |||
| Opinon Way | 20 Nov 2016 | 3,095 | 44% | 56% | – |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 21-23 Nov 2016 | 6,901 | 35% | 65% | – |
| Second round results | 27 November 2016 | – | 33.5% | 66.5% | – |
Hypothetical Polling[edit]
[show]
|
|---|
Results[edit]
Most voted candidate by department in the first round:
Most voted candidate by department in the second round:
In the first round of the primary on November 20, Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Juppé – long held by most opinion polls as the favorite to win the nomination – came in a distant second with 29%.[10][11] Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote. In his concession speech, Sarkozy endorsed Fillon and vowed to “embark on a life with more private passions and fewer public passions.”[12] This led to some media outlets declaring that “Sarkozy’s political career [had] been effectively ended.”[13]
In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the five departments won by Sarkozy in the first round, all but one switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments that originally voted for Juppé, nine switched to Fillon in the second round.
| Candidates | Parties | 1st round | 2nd round | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||
| François Fillon | The Republicans | LR | 1,890,266 | 44.1% | 2,919,874 | 66.5% | |
| Alain Juppé | The Republicans | LR | 1,224,855 | 28.6% | 1,471,898 | 33.5% | |
| Nicolas Sarkozy | The Republicans | LR | 886,137 | 20.7% | |||
| Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet | The Republicans | LR | 109,655 | 2.6% | |||
| Bruno Le Maire | The Republicans | LR | 102,168 | 2.4% | |||
| Jean-Frédéric Poisson | Christian Democratic Party | PCD | 62,346 | 1.5% | |||
| Jean-François Copé | The Republicans | LR | 12,787 | 0.3% | |||
| Total | 4,288,214 | 100% | 4,391,772 | 100% | |||
| Valid votes | 4,288,214 | 99.8% | 4,391,772 | 99.7% | |||
| Spoilt and null votes | 9,883 | 0.2% | 13,040 | 0.3% | |||
| Total | 4,298,097 | 100% | 4,404,812 | 100% | |||
| Table of results ordered by number of votes received in first round. Official results by High Authority.Source: First round result · Second round result | |||||||
Alex Infohub 
